Edward Lucas launches new Baltic security thinktank

Lazy, patronising and irresponsible — western commentators’ doom-mongering about the Baltic states encourages Russia and weakens Nato, British security expert Edward Lucas will tell an audience of Lithuanian and foreign dignitaries, decision-makers and opinion-formers in Vilnius today. “Narva is not ‘Next’,” says Lucas. Nor is the ‘Suwałki Gap’ the ‘most dangerous place in Europe’.”

“These are myths and scare stories. The Baltic states are vigilant countries with strong allies. They won’t be caught by surprise,” he says.

“Scenarios in which the Baltic states are ‘overrun’ within hours are militarily and geopolitically illiterate.”

Lucas lived in Vilnius in the early 1990s and received Lithuanian visa 0001 in March 1990, prompting his deportation by the KGB. He will launch his new project, the Baltic International Security Centre (BISC), at the historic Neringa Hotel, with a presentation highlighting what he calls the “seven deadly sins” of foreign commentary about the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

The worst of these is to echo Kremlin talking points, which depict the Baltic states as “Failed, Friendless, Fascist and Fragile — depopulated losers, internationally isolated, riven with conflict, plagued by extremism, and ripe for collapse.”

“All these are false,” says Lucas, a former senior editor at The Economist newsweekly. He will list the other six “deadly sins” at the event.

“The first edition of our flagship publication, the Baltic Barometer, shows the truth,” says Lucas. “The Baltic states are seen internationally as stable, creditworthy countries with strong institutions. The financial markets apply no significant geopolitical risk premium. In fact, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all borrow roughly at the same rate as France, a G7 country.”

The Baltic Barometer, designed for BISC by Vilnius-based communications agency Bosanova, is a 16-page report highlighting the Baltic states’ low external borrowing costs, thriving venture capital ecosystem, strong growth in local bond markets, and the potential for even greater improvement.

“It’s shocking that low liquidity puts the Baltic equity market in the same category as countries in the developing world,” says BISC’s Christopher Butler Research Fellow. Caspar Schulze, who edits the Barometer.

“Moving the Baltic NASDAQ into the Emerging Market category would make the Baltics a ‘must-tick’ box for portfolio investors, unlocking hundreds of millions of euros in inflows.”

"We welcome the important contribution that BISC is making with the Baltic Barometer — stronger capital market development will be an important part of our economic growth and national security in the coming years,” says Gediminas Varnas, CEO of NASDAQ Vilnius. “Elevating the profile of the Baltic markets on the global stage is a collective effort, and data-driven initiatives like this are key to unlocking our region's full economic potential."

“The Baltic states have an excellent story to tell,” says Lucas. “They have a stunning record of achievement over the past 35 years, and the prospects are bright and exciting.”

Future editions of the Barometer will deal with energy security and defence-tech innovation. BISC also has other programmes under way, including an in-depth report on internal problems in Russia’s Kaliningrad region.

BISC is supported chiefly by private and philanthropic donors. Its website, securebaltics.org, will go live on Monday. Further launch events will take place in Brussels on June 3 and in London next month.

“We chose Vilnius for our first public appearance because our first and most enthusiastic donors are Lithuanian,” says Lucas.

He cites, among others, Christopher Butler OBE, former chairman of the British-Lithuanian Chamber of Commerce, Justinas Šimkus of Baltic Classified Group, and Vytautas Matulevičius of Bosanova.